I'll occasionally have little tidbits of free advice on this page, with stuff like key #'s, formulating round robins, and any general concerns expressed in email feedback. KEY FOOTBALL NUMBERS 3 4 6 7 10 14 17 31 34 37 38 41 44 45 47 48 51 54 55 So what? WTF? What do we do with these, play loto? No, my fine-feathered friends. Learning your way around these digits will save you from the heartbreak of football psoriasis. First step: zero in on 31. If you suspect this and every # above it refers to totals (over/under) you're right. So let's start with 3-17. By the way, these #'s are keyest (if that's a word) in the NFL. They are still the template in college and CFL but less so because of OT's, singles (the "rouge"), more 2 point converts and just higher scoring in general. 3 is key. The keyest # in football. Any given year in the NFL will see at least 13% of the games end with a margin of 3. 7 falls 7%. 4,6, and 10 come in each around 6%. 14 is 5% and 17 is 4%. 1 and 2 are 4% as well, and the thing to remember here for Proline players looking for the middle (tie) is that they only come in from 21-25% of the time. That translates to 3-to-1 to almost 4-to-1 odds against the tie even if the game is rated even. That translates to needing Proline odds of 4.00-5.00 on most games. The upshot of all this: lay up to -125 to buy the half-point ("hook") when the # is 2.5-3.5 or 6.5-7.5. It's worth it in the long run. But -130 is not worth it. But every situation is unique, so if you want to pay a little more vig to keep a parlay alive you have my blessing. I will even lay up to -165 to -175 on the moneyline in some situations to avoid laying -3.5 or -4 on a favorite. The #'s 4,6,10,14, and 17 are key in that they show a significant market pressure when the line moves thru them. It takes more money to move a line from 2.5-4.5 than from 5.5-7.5. It takes more to go from 9.5-11.5 than from 12.5-14.5, etc.,etc. The same applies around 20-21, 24, and 27-28. All the other #'s are considered pretty much indistinguishable, save maybe 35 and 42 in college. In the NFL almost half the games are decided within a touchdown (around 45%). The mean (average) is about 11; the median usually about 10 (50% higher, 50% lower). The mode is...sure, 3! Hey, you're still awake in math class! So let's finish up with totals. The median for total points scored in the NFL since 1980 is around 41, though in the last 2 years it has crawled up around 44 (including 44.4 this season). But the mode is 37 which hits at about 5%. 20-17 is about the most common final score in an NFL game: 2 TD's apiece, 1 FG for the loser and 2 for the winner. The pressure points to watch in line moves are, in order of importance: 37-38, 51, 41, 44-48 (except 46), 34, 31, 54-55. As with spreads, try to predict if there is enough sentiment to either move thru these points or get stuck on them with 2-way action. Then plan to act early if necessary. And there is always point buying to fall back on if you guess wrong. Unlike with 3 and 7, I don't think point buying has any real value with totals, unless you can lay -115 at a book with a dime line, on or off 37. |
