KEY FOOTBALL NUMBERS
3 4 6 7 10 14 17 37 38 41 43 44 45 47 48 51 54 55
So what do we do with these, play lotto? Not a chance, my fine-feathered friends. Learning your way around these digits will save you from multitudinous bad beats.
First step: zero in on 37. If you suspect this and every # above it refers to totals (over/under) you're a keener. So let's start with 3 4 6 7 10 14 17. By the way, these #'s are keyest (if that's a word) in the NFL. They are still the template in college and CFL; just less so because of OT's, singles (the "rouge"), more 2 point converts, and just higher scoring in general.
3 is key. The keyest # in football. Any given year in the NFL will see 14.5%-16% of the games end with a margin of 3. 7 falls 9.5%-11%. 1,2,4,5,8 each come in around 4%. 10 is 5%,14 is 6% and 17 is 3.5%. FG games only come in from 21-25% of the time. That translates to almost 4-to-1 odds even if the game is rated pk w/a low total. That translates to needing odds of 4.00-5.00 on most games. It's about the same probability as the hockey OT. Both are about 23%. The CFL FG games are 22% and college only 15%.
The upshot of all this: lay anywhere from -118 to -125 to buy the half-point ("hook") in NFL when the # is 2.5-3.5 or 6.5-7.5 or 9.5-10.5. It's worth it in the long run. But -130 is definitely not worth it. But every situation is unique, so if you want to pay a little more vig to keep a parlay alive you have my blessing. In general 1-8 are all pretty live and 9,11,12,13 are dead. I will even lay up to -170 on the moneyline in some situations to avoid laying -3.5 or -4 on a favorite.
The #'s 4, 6, and 17 are still somewhat key insofar as they show a significant market pressure when the line moves thru them. It takes more money to move a line from 2.5-4.5 than from 5.5-7.5. It takes more to go from 9.5-11.5 than from 12.5-14.5. The same applies around 17, 20-21, 24, and 27-28. All the other #'s are considered pretty much indistinguishable, save maybe 35 in college.
In the NFL almost half the games are decided within a 2 point converted touchdown (around 48%-49.5%). The mean (average) is about 11; the median 8 (48% higher, 52% lower). The mode is...sure, 3! Hey, you're still awake in math class! Wow! So let's finish up with the totals.
The median for total points scored in the NFL since 2008 is 44, though in the last few years the mean has scratched 49. But the mode is 41 which hits at about 4%. 23-20 is the most common final score in an NFL game: 2 TD's apiece, 2 FG's for the loser and 3 for the winner. The pressure points to watch in line moves are, in order of importance: 40-41, 51, 43-45, and 54-55. As with spreads, try to predict if there is enough sentiment to either move thru these points or get stuck on them with 2-way action. Then plan to act early if necessary. And there is always point buying to fall back on if you guess wrong. Unlike with 3 and 7, I don't think point buying has much value with totals, unless you can lay -115 at a book with a dime line (to get on or off 37, 41, 43, or 44).
And don't forget in NFLX, FG games come in at 24%, due to 1's jumping up to 7.5% (coaches hate OT in preseason). But that may change as no OT is allowed in NFLX anymore.